Nfl Bet O The Week 10

[OccamsRazor]

YTD 2-1
SIDES 2-1
TOTALS 0-0

Week 7 SD+3 W
Week 8 SD-6 W
Week 9 Philly Pk L

Lost last time out here as Pittsburgh showed that they are all that.

Will keep it short and sweet. Talked at lenght here about T.Os being the deciding factor in football wagers. Trouble is figuring out who is going to turn the ball over or not. One factor with a high degree of coorelation to Turnovers is QB experience. Rookie QB's for the most part turn the ball over a great deal. Jag QB Garrard makes his second NFL start and should give us some turnovers. Detroit leads the league in turnover Differential.

Detroit +3.5

 

[kayaman]

DETROIT? Where did you come up with that? Didn't see that one coming. Good Luck!

 

[OccamsRazor]

I know Kaya, Detroit??? Its a probability play. One of the angles that has been succesful for me through out the years is betting against a Rookie QB making his first start. The other team will disguise coverages and blitz the hell out of him. Rookie gets rattled and the T.O. parade starts. Every few years there comes along an exception to the rule (See Steeler QB) but for the most part, The young QBs struggle. Garrard is making his second career start. He lost his first one to Indy in 2002 Garrard completed 13 of 26 passes for 135 yards, was sacked three times and fumbled once as the Jaguars lost 20-13 in the last game of the season. This is a bet against the Jags rather than an endorsement of the Lions. What adds to this bet is the fact that the Lions don't turn the ball over and lead the league in T.O. differential. So there you have it. Teams that win the TO battle win 80% of the time SU. I see Jags turning the ball over to Detroit today. As a little bit of insurance the linesmaker giving us a generous 3.5 points. Lions are 3-1 as away dogs this season. I post em, you read em and decide if the reasoning is solid and you bet em if you like em.

 

[kayaman]

Alright you've convinced me. Good luck! Congrats on a solid start for the NBA. Can't wait for your next play!

 

[Publius]

I'm on the ML and the spread. Like the pick. Keep up the good work.

 

[~Falco~]

Like the fact that most don't mention this game.

 

[OMNIVOROUS FROG]

Got the free half, +4 and + 3 1/2 ev. You are dead on about inexperienced QB's.


Best Wishes...OF:howdy:

 

[OccamsRazor]

Halftime 10-0 Jags. Watching the game on the computer at NFL live. Detroit's play calling is atrocious. Pass when they should run, run when they should pass. Only thing keeping Lions down by 10 is the Jags self defeating penalties. Jags won TO battle 1-0 in first half. Kid QB playing clean game so far. Lion halftime adjustments I would make if I was coach. I would line up my offensive line in the locker room and punch each one in the mouth to remind them to quit making stupid holding calls and putting us in 1st and 20. But thats just sweet Ol me.

 

[OccamsRazor]

AHHHHH. OUCH. Eddie Drummond Kicks ass. Lion's offensive coordinator should be fired. Well we did'nt get the TOs we wanted. Kid QB played clean and knifed us in OT.

 

[AntonioMarinacci]

I hat DET with you...

What a shi**y way to lose!

 

[Publius]

That's the second time this season I've lost a bet by a TD in OT. What the hell is up with that?

 

[~Falco~]

Small consolation is that I wavered choosing between GB and Detroit all week, finally choosing Detroit, cus Packer defense scared me and I'd rather take 3.5 than give 4. After losing the Lion Bet in O.T. where the games are decided by a FG, something like 75% OF THE TIME. I had to endure GB jumping out to a big lead and I'm crying about how a shoulda taken GB instead. Well GB folds in the end and me like a true gambler, find something to be happy about: Even though I liked two losing bets, I only bet one of them. I was right about GB. Like i said small consolation. Effing Lions.

 

[OMNIVOROUS FROG]

Had more on Texans when Vikes got them. I got that twice in NFL 2004 book of bad beats. Two for two on OT total losers over. Early missed FG, 32 yarder I think and going for it early on 4th, failed. Lucky to make it to OT, only to have gambling Goddess laugh her evil laugh and take it away. Time off is looking better all the time.

Best Wishes...OF :howdy: